Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $980,943$ on 2020-12-13
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,012,816.3}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 150.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,012,816.3\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $36,544$ on 2020-12-13
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,825.6}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 129.3)}}\) (asimptote \(35,825.6\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $28,064$ on 2020-12-13
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,498,160$ on 2020-12-13
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,676,550.6}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 204.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,676,550.6\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $40,766$ on 2020-12-13
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,780.6}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 200.4)}}\) (asimptote \(44,780.6\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $122,077$ on 2020-12-13
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $6,901,952$ on 2020-12-13
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,466,759.8}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 154.3)}}\) (asimptote \(6,466,759.8\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $181,402$ on 2020-12-13
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{174,012.7}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 129.7)}}\) (asimptote \(174,012.7\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $582,201$ on 2020-12-13
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $571,919$ on 2020-12-13
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{519,450.4}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 121.0)}}\) (asimptote \(519,450.4\))
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $15,886$ on 2020-12-13
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,533.6}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 118.8)}}\) (asimptote \(14,533.6\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $11,201$ on 2020-12-13
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $202,110$ on 2020-12-13
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{230,921.1}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 175.0)}}\) (asimptote \(230,921.1\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $13,875$ on 2020-12-13
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,689.5}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 162.5)}}\) (asimptote \(15,689.5\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $10,284$ on 2020-12-13
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $147,150$ on 2020-12-13
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{144,350.5}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 133.1)}}\) (asimptote \(144,350.5\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,018$ on 2020-12-13
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,179.8}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 143.0)}}\) (asimptote \(9,179.8\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $11,911$ on 2020-12-13
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,425,774$ on 2020-12-13
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,444,607.0}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 186.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,444,607.0\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $39,053$ on 2020-12-13
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{37,511.9}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 160.6)}}\) (asimptote \(37,511.9\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $71,885$ on 2020-12-13
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $93,582$ on 2020-12-13
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{96,963.6}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 210.3)}}\) (asimptote \(96,963.6\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,953$ on 2020-12-13
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,923.5}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 200.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,923.5\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $25,086$ on 2020-12-13