Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in South America⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Peru⮸

Population $32,971,854$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $980,943$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,012,816.3}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 150.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,012,816.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $36,544$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,825.6}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 129.3)}}\) (asimptote \(35,825.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $28,064$ on 2020-12-13

Argentina⮸

Population $45,195,774$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,498,160$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,676,550.6}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 204.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,676,550.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $40,766$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,780.6}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 200.4)}}\) (asimptote \(44,780.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $122,077$ on 2020-12-13

Brazil⮸

Population $212,559,417$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $6,901,952$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,466,759.8}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 154.3)}}\) (asimptote \(6,466,759.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $181,402$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{174,012.7}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 129.7)}}\) (asimptote \(174,012.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $582,201$ on 2020-12-13

Chile⮸

Population $19,116,201$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $571,919$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{519,450.4}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 121.0)}}\) (asimptote \(519,450.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $15,886$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,533.6}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 118.8)}}\) (asimptote \(14,533.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $11,201$ on 2020-12-13

Ecuador⮸

Population $17,643,054$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $202,110$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{230,921.1}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 175.0)}}\) (asimptote \(230,921.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $13,875$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,689.5}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 162.5)}}\) (asimptote \(15,689.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $10,284$ on 2020-12-13

Bolivia⮸

Population $11,673,021$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $147,150$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{144,350.5}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 133.1)}}\) (asimptote \(144,350.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,018$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,179.8}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 143.0)}}\) (asimptote \(9,179.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $11,911$ on 2020-12-13

Colombia⮸

Population $50,882,891$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,425,774$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,444,607.0}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 186.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,444,607.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $39,053$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{37,511.9}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 160.6)}}\) (asimptote \(37,511.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $71,885$ on 2020-12-13

Paraguay⮸

Population $7,132,538$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $93,582$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{96,963.6}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 210.3)}}\) (asimptote \(96,963.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,953$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,923.5}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 200.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,923.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $25,086$ on 2020-12-13

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Venezuela recovered 63%
Argentina recovered 30%

Venezuela⮸

Population $28,435,940$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $107,786$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{104,724.4}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 174.1)}}\) (asimptote \(104,724.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $954$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{945.8}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 166.4)}}\) (asimptote \(945.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,543$ on 2020-12-13